The exchange rate of a country is determined by two factors: internal factors and external factors, be it economic, political, and other sentiments. All these factors will affect the state of the nation's currency movements be it much or little impact.
But in the forex market currency price are rated by only one factor that is exported. These currencies in the forex called commodity currencies. Commodity currency is the currency that comes from countries that are exporters of raw materials or natural resources it has.
Specification of commodity currencies is the nation's economy Based on the export of certain types of raw materials like oil, gas, metals, and agricultural products. In general, this definition applies not only for developing countries exporting natural resources / raw materials such as Burundi, Tanzania or Papua New Guinea, but also applies to industrialized countries exporting commodities such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
With the understanding that it's basically there are a lot of currency that can be said as a commodity currency. The most active currencies traded in the forex market is New Zealand Dollar (NZD = Dollar Kiwi), Australian Dollar (AUD = Aussie) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD = loonie). So the relevance of the term commodity currency in forex trading is more inclined to a third currency.
Third-country currency is also known as the commodity dollars or Comdolls, because these countries have a currency called the dollar. For countries producing raw materials in bulk, an increase of commodity prices allow the exchange rate is also rising, and vice versa.
The Australian dollar and gold price movements
One of the largest commodity producing countries and has actively traded currencies is Australia. Currently Australia is a leading country in mining and has large reserves of the world for gold, brown coal, lead, nickel, copper and silver. While commodities from Australia in the form of coal, LNG, iron ore, copper, diamonds and other minerals into raw materials for the construction of other countries in the world.
With an abundance of resource ownership, many investors who invest in Australia's natural resource sector, and has contributed significantly to the prosperity of Australia. Throughout the last three years, this sector has contributed about 18 percent of GDP, 42 percent of export income and corporate tax revenues barn. Revenue from this sector are many reinvested back in infrastructure projects and other natural resources. The main key to attract a large and long-term investment into Australia is its ability to provide a stable tax regime and competitive.
Gold is one commodity that is the mainstay of Australia and has its share of more than 50 percent of the country's total export value. Gold commodities a major contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) of Australia, so that increases and decreases in gold prices, adversely affecting the Australian dollar. This causes fluctuations in the value of gold has a very significant impact on the economy of Australia and the Australian dollar movement. Even the movement of gold can be used as a base or step for market participants to predict the movement of pairs EUR / USD.
In the financial world, gold is seen as a safe haven against inflation and also the most heavily traded commodity. But the supply of gold on the world market is not in line with the demand is constantly increasing. A number of merger and closure illustrates how the supply of gold is reduced.
The new gold mine production increased by about 3 percent in 2010, up to about 2652 tons. This was due to several new large-scale mines in operation. Despite the increase, however, gold mine production has been declining since early 2000, so that despite an increase in gold production, but still not able to meet consumer demand for gold.
Ever-increasing number of requests, especially from China and India make investors turn to gold products as investment opportunities and encourage more gold prices soaring. In addition to increasing demand, another factor which causes the price of gold soared to the land of gold mining no longer exists. All the gold had been dug up and the miners must now dig deeper to access the quality of gold reserves.
The fact that gold is more challenging to access raises additional problems, which include the miners will be exposed to additional hazards and environmental impacts will increase. In short, there will be more expensive to get a little more gold. This would increase the cost of gold mine production to result in a sharp rise in gold prices.
Australia which is the third largest gold producer, is obviously very influenced by the fate of the gold price, as well as its currency. In the event of an increase in the price of gold is predicted to almost always give you appreciation for the Australian dollar. Vice versa if there is a decrease in the price of gold will provide attenuation for the Australian dollar and most other country's currency, which makes gold as a commodity currency, like New Zealand. Proximity of New Zealand was chosen to make Australia's export destinations of New Zealand goods. Therefore, the economic health of New Zealand is closely linked to the economic health of Australia.
By looking at patterns of movement between the commodity price of gold and the Aussie during normal movement of rising gold prices in line with the strengthening Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. While the global financial crisis period around the year 2008-2009, the relationship is a bit disturbed. During times of uncertainty or economic recession, many investors turn to gold investment value because of its durability. Gold is often considered to be safe haven for investors during uncertain economic conditions. When the actual expected return of equities, bonds, and real estate fell, interest in gold investment increases, so will raise the price.
Gold can be used as a hedge against currency devaluation inflation or deflation. In addition, gold is seen as a refuge from political instability, as evidenced by the recent unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, which may come to influence the gold rally recently to new highs.
Fluctuations in the Australian dollar and U.S. dollar
Currently the Aussie is a currency that are traded in the foreign exchange market in addition to USD, euro, yen and pound sterling. Along with the soaring price of gold, the Aussie had come to appreciate sharply. On October 15, 2010, the Australian dollar reached parity with the greenback for the first time since becoming a freely traded currency. Australian dollar and traded above parity for the next period that began in November 2010, and continued to fluctuate until now.
On July 27, 2011 Australian dollar hit a record high against the U.S. dollar traded at 1.1080 dollars against the U.S. dollar. Some market analysts have even suggested that the Aussie could rise to 1.70 U.S. dollars in 2014. The spike in commodity prices is the biggest driver for the appreciation of the Australian dollar.
Fluctuations in the Australian dollar in 2011 was strongly associated with problems of European sovereign debt crisis, and the strong relationship between Australia and the importers in Asia, especially China. This means the Australian dollar exchange rate changes occur in the opposite way to other currencies, where many currencies are depreciating as a result of the financial crisis in Europe and slowing world economic growth. These conditions provide more opportunities for apresaisi wider Australian dollars. It is time for investors to pick up or increase the portion of the Aussie on the portfolio to avoid or reduce losses caused by the uncertainty of global conditions.
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